Citi sees Venezuela as an opportunity for Ecopetrol

The US bank Citi believes the Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Ecopetrol) has a unique opportunity in Venezuela to revive its hydrocarbons business, according to the portal Finanzas Digital, which reported it on October 9, 2026. According to the report, the Colombian state company's advantage lies in its technical capacity to extract heavy crude, a resource that is abundant in the Orinoco basin.

Extracting heavy crude requires enhanced recovery technologies, an area in which Ecopetrol has built expertise over the past two decades. This type of oil, because of its high viscosity, is difficult to extract and process, which makes technical experience a key factor in making shared fields in the border region viable.

However, operating on Venezuelan soil means navigating a complex financial environment. Venezuela's sovereign rating currently stands at C, according to the assessment by Moody's dated January 1, 2026. Likewise, the country risk premium estimated for that same date by academic Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) stood at 26.66%, reflecting the high cost of financing and the uncertain conditions facing investments in the country.

Added to this are the restrictions of the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which represent the main immediate obstacle to any agreement. Although Ecopetrol’s new president, Joaquín Gutiérrez, recently traveled to Venezuela to explore alliances within the framework of opening up to private capital, the viability of these projects will depend on the licenses and authorizations granted by Washington.

For Citi, the state company’s new board of directors has a “unique opportunity to restore the oil and gas business as the main driver of value for the company.” However, the report warns that OFAC restrictions are the main obstacle, even though “Ecopetrol has the right to play a significant role from a technical perspective, but even from a geopolitical angle.”