Colombia's fiscal rule committee calls for tough adjustment to stabilize public accounts

The Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee (Carf) of Colombia said on September 11, 2026 that the country needs a convincing macroeconomic adjustment to return to the path set by the fiscal rule. According to La República, the technical body warned that a primary surplus of 2% of GDP will be needed by 2028 to stabilize public finances. The statement coincides with the presentation of the new draft budget which, according to the same committee, more realistically reflects the scale of the effort required, although it reveals an extremely challenging financial picture for the nation.

In practice, a primary surplus means that the government must collect more than it spends, before paying interest on its debt. When a country fails to achieve this balance, it is forced to issue more debt securities or seek external financing, which increases its future financial burden. According to El Tiempo, the Carf warns that public debt will keep rising if permanent measures are not adopted, and it expects to learn the details of the fiscal adjustment equal to 2.2% of GDP announced by the government to correct the accounts.

This call for austerity comes at a time when debt levels are stagnating. According to World Bank indicators, Colombia's central government debt stood at 70.3% of GDP in 2022 and rose to 71.2% of GDP in 2023. In 2024, the figure held at 71.2% of GDP, underscoring the difficulty of durably reducing the state's financial commitments. In this context, the high country risk premium makes international credit more expensive and deters private investment, limiting the government's room for maneuver.

Failure to adjust in time could worsen the situation in the coming years. According to projections by Bloomberg Línea, if current conditions do not change, by 2027 the supply of Treasury bonds (TES) would exceed 150 trillion Colombian pesos and external borrowing would climb to $26.1 billion, figures that would represent record highs. By contrast, the same outlet reported that a successful adjustment could cut these financing needs by up to 90 trillion Colombian pesos, easing pressure on the capital markets.