Venezuela's country risk halves in 2026 amid political change and new oil deals

The Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), compiled by JPMorgan to measure the risk premium investors demand on sovereign debt securities over U.S. Treasury bonds, fell by approximately 52% from the 12,671 basis points recorded at the start of the year, on January 2. This downward trend had already taken shape the previous year, when the indicator dropped from the 24,963 basis points recorded in January 2025.

According to the outlet cited, the fundamental triggers for this financial behavior lie in politics and geopolitics. The first major move downward came immediately after the political change at the beginning of the year, specifically following the capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. Later, the indicator's decline picked up again between late August and early September, driven by new oil agreements promoted by the U.S. government, which open a window for greater flexibility in the marketing of hydrocarbons.

However, from the standpoint of economic theory, this reduction in country risk does not automatically translate into improvements for Venezuela's real economy. Because the nation has been in default since 2017 and has not completed a formal restructuring of its external debt, the country remains entirely excluded from international credit markets. Therefore, the behavior of the EMBI reflects only speculation and creditors' expectations of recovery in the secondary bond market, without representing a reduction in the real cost of financing for the state, or a direct stimulus for local private investment or job creation in the short term.

The Venezuelan economy shows, in parallel, other movements in key sectors. According to El Nacional, Heeney Capital signed an agreement to operate the Choco mine and export gold, a project that could generate an estimated export value of $2.2 billion per year. However, sovereign financing conditions remain extremely complex. According to academic estimates by Professor Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern), updated as of January 1, 2026, Venezuela's credit rating sits in the C category, with an implied country risk premium of 26.66%, which shows that structural challenges of solvency and access to international credit persist beyond fluctuations in secondary markets.