JP Morgan cuts Argentina growth forecast to 1.5%

JP Morgan lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Argentina from 2.7% to 1.5% and anticipated a recession in the third quarter, according to the outlet La iguana TV, citing the financial report.

The contraction reported by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (Indec) relative to June exceeded the bank's initial projections, which had placed the monthly decline at around 1%. The Monthly Economic Activity Estimator recorded a year-on-year decline of 1.4% in July, driven by sectoral drops such as industry, which plunged 4.6%, and commerce, which fell 5.1%.

The productive slowdown recorded in July is accompanied by a deep deterioration in household incomes relative to inflation. The Permanent Household Survey confirmed in September that poverty reached 24.4% of households and 32.3% of people (15 million) in the first half of 2026, while indigence stood at 5.6% of households and 7.5% of the population (3.5 million).

In line with this scenario, JP Morgan estimates that nearly a third of Argentina's population is below the poverty line, some 9.7 million people in approximately 2.5 million households. The deterioration reflected the gap between the cost of living and incomes, as the poverty basket rose 19.6% compared with the last quarter of 2025, while per capita household income advanced 11.5%.