Lula reelected president of Brazil with 51.66% of the vote

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was reelected president of Brazil on October 26, 2026, after defeating Flávio Bolsonaro, according to BBC News Mundo. With more than 90% of the official count completed, the candidate won in a day marked by a tight vote count, the British outlet confirmed. Meanwhile, Valora Analitik reported that the president received 51.66% of the vote, consolidating the continuity of the left in government in the region's largest economy.

The result surprised prediction markets, which before the day of voting gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 80% chance of victory, according to information published by Ámbito. After Lula's victory was confirmed, the real futures contract maturing in November 2026 registered a 9.14% depreciation on the futures market of the Chicago exchange, according to Folha de S.Paulo.

The new presidential term will begin in a complex macroeconomic environment. According to France 24, the incoming administration will inherit a fiscal deficit close to 9.5% of GDP and public debt of around 83% of GDP. Brazil's economy also faces annual inflation of 4.58% and interest rates of around 14%, which poses severe challenges for putting public accounts in order and for economic growth.

The performance of public accounts and decisions on interest rates will directly influence the cost of credit and private-sector investment decisions during the institutional transition.