Budget 2027: Argentine government projects 21.1% inflation and 4% growth

The Argentine government presented the draft 2027 Budget bill, which projects an annual rise in prices of 21.1% and a 4% increase in gross domestic product (GDP), according to information published on September 15, 2026 by the outlet Infobae.

The official draft also forecasts an exchange rate below 1,800 pesos per dollar, Infobae reported. These macroeconomic projections set the parameters the executive branch estimated for the economy's performance over the coming year, a key exercise for determining the resources allocated to public spending and to meeting financial obligations.

Separately, El Cronista detailed in its coverage that the current administration's official targets include 4% growth in economic activity, a figure that seeks to sustain the recovery following the fiscal adjustments implemented in earlier periods.

To gauge the financial climate in which these projections are being discussed, Argentina's country risk, as measured by the J.P. Morgan index, showed a downward trend in the preceding months. The indicator fell from a peak of 588 basis points in March 2026 (where one basis point equals one hundredth of a percentage point) to 419 basis points in July, before settling at 465 basis points in August.

The evolution of this indicator is relevant because it reflects international markets' confidence in the country's ability to pay. A narrower spread lowers the cost of borrowing for the economy and determines access to credit.