ECLAC warns Super El Niño could erase 2% of regional GDP

An extreme climate event known as Super El Niño would cause a cumulative loss of at least 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Latin America and the Caribbean over the next three years, according to the portal Finanzas Digital, which on September 21 cited a report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

The agency defines the phenomenon by sea-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific above 2.25 °C, similar to those recorded in earlier episodes such as 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. During the first year of the event, regional economic activity would contract by 1%.

Beyond the macroeconomic impact, ECLAC projects an increase of 4.8 million people in poverty before 2030, with critical vulnerabilities concentrated in key sectors such as agriculture, energy and fishing. The effects will vary by subregion, bringing droughts and forest fires to northern South America and heavier rainfall to the Southern Cone.

In terms of economic growth, the steepest declines in real GDP would occur in Ecuador and Peru, with estimated contractions of 4.1%, while the smallest impacts would fall on Chile, at 0.5%, and Costa Rica, at 0.4%, according to the information published by Finanzas Digital.