Venezuela applies new gasoline schedule with 95% subsidy

A new weekly schedule for gasoline supply under the subsidized scheme took effect in Venezuela.

The scheme operates through the Sistema Patria, the state platform used to allocate resources and control social programs. Access to subsidized fuel requires prior registration on this platform, which manages monthly quotas for owners of cars and motorcycles.

According to data published by El Estímulo, the state subsidy for gasoline reaches 95%. This percentage represents a significant fiscal effort to keep the price of fuel well below international benchmarks, in a domestic market marked by severe supply constraints.

The sustainability of such a high subsidy faces pressure from macroeconomic variables. According to projections by the consultancy Econométrica, reported by the newspaper El Nacional, the official exchange rate in Venezuela is expected to reach 1,270 bolívares per dollar by year-end. A depreciation of the bolívar raises the costs of importing and refining fuel, widening the fiscal gap the state must cover to keep the subsidized price for final consumers.

The gap between the projected official exchange rate and the real cost of refining will be the key indicator for determining whether the current subsidy scheme can be sustained without generating greater inflationary pressures.