Venezuela could improve its terms of trade by 23% in 2026

Venezuela's terms of trade would improve by 23% in 2026, placing it as the second-best performer on this indicator in Latin America and the Caribbean. The figure comes from projections by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), which places Peru at the top of the region with an increase of 26%, while the regional average is estimated at 6%.

Terms of trade measure the relationship between the prices of the goods a country sells abroad and the prices it pays for its imports. When this indicator improves, the economy gains greater purchasing power in international markets for the same volume of exports. In Venezuela's case, this outcome stems mainly from the expected rise in international prices for hydrocarbons and other commodities.

This foreign trade performance is consistent with the outlook set out by the International Monetary Fund, which projects real GDP growth of 4.0% for Venezuela in 2026. On the bilateral trade front, El Nacional reported that exports of Venezuelan oil to the United States rose 170%, driven by purchases by Citgo.

For the domestic economy, an improvement in the terms of trade favors the inflow of foreign currency and eases the cost of importing essential goods. However, the actual benefit for domestic production will depend on the trend in export volumes and the ability to sustain oil supply.